UPDATE YOUR MAP: Exploring the 2024 Immigration Crisis Navigating Uncharted Waters
It’s not the unknown you should fear, but the wrong map. A wrong map will take you precisely and with efficiency to the wrong place.
As 2023 drew to a close, the United States became the epicenter of an unparalleled immigration crisis, challenging the very foundations of its social, legal, and moral frameworks in unprecedented ways. The U.S.-Mexico border, a perennial flashpoint in the nation’s complex relationship with its southern neighbor, witnessed record-breaking migrant encounters, with December’s figures soaring to an unparalleled 250,000. This surge, a tangible manifestation of deep-seated global inequities, conflict, and human aspiration, cast a long shadow over the nation’s immigration discourse, challenging not only the capacity of the southern border States but also sanctuary cities and the very ethos underpinning its identity as a land of opportunity and refuge.
Sanctuary cities, from the bustling streets of New York City to the political heartland of Washington, D.C., and the wind-swept expanses of Chicago, found themselves on the front lines of this escalating human drama. These cities, with their avowed commitment to offering refuge, seem unable to face the Herculean task of integrating the new arrivals into their social fabric even though border states like Texas, Arizona and California have been dealing with this influx for years. The financial ramifications were immediate and profound, with New York’s state fund, earmarked for supporting undocumented migrants, depleting a staggering $2.1 billion in mere months.
Amid this massive exodus, the varied origins of the migrants became strikingly apparent. Far from a monolithic wave, the surge comprised individuals from a myriad of countries, including Venezuelans, Haitians, Cubans, Indians, Chinese, Ukrainians, Russians, Nicaraguans, and beyond. Stopping “Inadmissibles” at U.S. Ports of Entry This tapestry of nationalities not only highlighted the global nature of the immigration crisis but also challenged simplistic narratives surrounding migration and asylum.
The ripple effects extended far beyond these urban sanctuaries to the border communities, where the abstract debates of immigration policy collided with the tangible realities of human need. The strain on education, healthcare, and other essential services was palpable, a testament to the imperative of a coherent, compassionate national strategy.
We are overwhelmed by DATA in a digital age where data is limitless, frictionless, and free. Counterintuitively, we default to our preconceptions (our existing Mental Map of the world) instead of incorporating new information (confirmation bias). We must update our mental map or risk allowing the perverse mental mathematics of emotional empathy to control us.
LEGAL AND ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION: A Dichotomy Revisited
The discourse surrounding U.S. immigration must first make the stark categorization of migrants as either ‘legal’ or ‘illegal’. Contrary to the Biden administration’s and pro-immigration NGOs’ claims no one is seriously challenging the rights of naturalized citizens.
According to the Census Bureau, immigrants (Legal AND estimated Undocumented) composed 13.6 percent of the U.S. population in 2021, or about 45 million people out of a total of more than 332 million, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Immigrants and their U.S.-born children comprise about 27 percent of U.S. inhabitants per the 2022 Current Population Survey. The U.S. Immigration Debate @ Council on Foreign Relations
The Census Bureau’s combined estimate (both documented and undocumented) likely underreports the actual number of undocumented individuals in the U.S.
As of January 1, 2022, there are an estimated 25 million foreign-born citizens and approximately 12.9 million legal permanent residents (green card holders) in the United States. US Census Bureau There are an additional 2 million people on temporary work visas in the USA. Accordingly, there are approximately 40 million foreign-born residents who are legally in the USA out of an estimated 45 million made by the U.S. Census Bureau.
- In a Nov. 2023 study, PEW reports there were 10.5 million in 2021, below the peak of 12.2 million in 2007. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/11/16/what-we-know-about-unauthorized-immigrants-living-in-the-us/
- DHS last looked at the number in 2018! According to DHS, the estimate was 11.4 million living in the USA on January 1, 2018, roughly unchanged from January 1, 2015. DHS, 2023
Given the official estimated 10–12 million undocumented in the USA, we know the estimate of 45 million foreign-born residents significantly underreports the undocumented.
A groundbreaking 2018 study by a Yale University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) team employed advanced demographic modeling techniques to estimate the undocumented immigrant population in the United States over the period from 1990 to 2016. Their findings suggest a significant upward revision of previous estimates. Specifically, their analysis estimates the undocumented immigrant population in 2016 to be AT LEAST 16.7 million, nearly 50% higher than the widely accepted figure of 11.3 million reported by the Pew Hispanic Center. Furthermore, their research indicates a potential range for the undocumented immigrant population from 16.7 million to 27.5 million, with a median estimate of 22.1 million. This starkly contrasts with earlier estimates and suggests a more substantial undocumented immigrant presence (Fazel-Zarandi et al., 2018).
These discrepancies highlight the challenges in accurately determining the total number of undocumented immigrants within the broader immigrant population in the U.S. The higher estimates suggest that the number of undocumented immigrants could significantly impact the overall percentage of immigrants in the U.S. population and the drain on public services.
The major reason for the inability to recognize the scope of illegal migration is that there is a concerted effort by over 30 Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) often working in concert with the executive branch to disperse these immigrants to every corner of the USA. The Heritage Foundation (a conservative think-tank) tracked the geo-location data on over 30,000 phones used at, and virtually all given to, illegal immigrants being assisted by the NGOs. “During the month of January 2022, more than 22,000 unique mobile devices were detected at these NGO facilities. The devices were later traced to 431 separate U.S. congressional districts out of a total 435 congressional districts.” Tracking Movement of Illegal Aliens from NGOs to Interior of USA December 2022
Geofencing of 20 NGO facilities of 22,000 unique mobile devices at 20 NGO facilities
The unstated purpose of this dispersion is that overflow from Customs and Border Protection is being transferred to these NGOs so that Border Patrol avoids overcrowded facilities. These organizations are taxpayer-funded to “provide processing and transportation services and infrastructure to facilitate the migration of illegal aliens into the interior of the country.”
In two other programs, the Biden administration
- the Biden regime flew 320,000 foreign nationals from South and Central America to 43 U.S. airports from January through December 2023.
- “has brought in another 420,000 immigrants from nearly 100 nations from May 2021 through December 2023,” and were granted parole benefits at eight U.S.-Mexico land ports of entry according to the CIS lawsuit data. AND
**Todd Bensman, a national security expert with the Center for Immigration Studies (CIS), obtained the documents through a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) lawsuit. Government Admission: Biden Parole Flights Create Security ‘Vulnerabilities’ at U.S. Airports March 2024
Finally, the most pubic efforts have been those of Texas. “Since the launch of Operation Lone Star, the multi-agency effort has led to over 495,400 illegal immigrant apprehensions and more than 38,300 criminal arrests, with more than 34,700 felony charges. Texas has also bused [to sanctuary cities]:
- Over 12,500 migrants to Washington, D.C. since April 2022
- Over 37,100 migrants to New York City since August 2022
- Over 30,800 migrants to Chicago since August 2022
- Over 3,400 migrants to Philadelphia since November 2022
- Over 15,700 migrants to Denver since May 18
- Over 1,500 migrants to Los Angeles since June 14
Texas Transports Over 100,000 Migrants To Sanctuary Cities (State of Texas press release, January 12, 2024)
Unveiled by groundbreaking research and extensive monitoring, paints a complex picture of the challenges faced by policymakers and society. The Yale-MIT study’s revelation of potentially higher undocumented immigrant numbers is validated when coupled with the Heritage Foundation’s insights into the geographical dispersal of these individuals. The Biden administration’s policies and Texas’s Operation Lone Star further highlight the multifaceted approaches to managing immigration flows (both hidden and publicized). These developments call for a reevaluation of existing immigration estimates and strategies, urging a more informed and comprehensive discourse on the subject.
FROM DIVERSE ORIGINS UNDOCUMENTED IMMIGRANTS DO ESSENTIAL WORK
The narrative of immigration, particularly in the context of the 2024 odyssey, is deeply interwoven with the economic fabric of the U.S. Beyond the heated debates and stark statistics lies an undeniable truth: undocumented immigrants are an integral component of the U.S. economy, contributing significantly across various sectors while navigating the complexities of their legal status necessitating policies that balance humane considerations with fiscal responsibilities.
Recognizing the contributions of undocumented immigrants, while addressing the legitimate financial strains on public resources, is key to formulating balanced and humane policies.
NAVIGATING THE LEGAL LABYRINTH
The evolution of immigration law, from the seminal acts of 1965 and 1986, reflects an ongoing struggle to adapt to the dynamic landscape of global migration. It falls short in grappling with the complexities of global displacement, economic migration, and the nuanced realities of refugee and asylum seekers today. The asylum process, enshrined as a sanctum for the persecuted, has devolved into a byzantine odyssey of its own, ensnared in procedural quagmires that challenge the very ethos it seeks to uphold.
Currently, anyone physically in the United States subject to deportation has the right to claim asylum. The current “credible fear” standard to enter an asylum claim means more than 90% of all migrants claim they believe they have a credible fear of persecution at their initial screen interview. If they can meet this low bar, then the asylum officer will be allowed to stay in the USA to plead their case before an immigration judge. Currently >60% claiming asylum are let into the county (down from >80% in 2020). What We Know About the Senate Negotiations That Could Wreck Asylum in the US
Originally intended as a beacon of hope for those escaping persecution, the asylum process has come to symbolize the systemic flaws of the immigration system. With immigration courts overwhelmed by a backlog surpassing 3 million cases, the pursuit of asylum has transformed into an arduous and seemingly unending odyssey. The delays and procedural hurdles not only exacerbate the vulnerabilities of genuine refugees but also fuel divisive debates around the legitimacy and efficiency of the asylum system.
THE JOURNEYS TO AMERICA: A Tale of Two Pathways
America’s illegal immigration narrative is punctuated by two predominant routes: overstaying visas (tourist, student, worker, etc,) and traversing the perilous southern border. The increasing encounters, notably through the daunting Darién Gap, illuminate the desperate lengths to which individuals will go in search of safety and opportunity.
- By a visa & air: According to the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), nearly 854,000 visitors overstayed their visas in the United States in the fiscal year 2022. An estimated 42% of the approximately 11 million unauthorized population living in the United States entered the country legally but overstayed their period of admission. https://tracfed.syr.edu/tracker/dynadata/2023_12/R47848.pdf
- Braving our southern border: U.S. immigration authorities carried out 2.475 million migrant encounters (a term encompassing apprehensions and expulsions) at the southwest border in FY 2023. The numbers were 2.378 million in 2022 and 1.734 million in 2021. Of course, the southern Border is the final leg of much longer journeys.
For the first three months of FY 24, the total is 785,000 and these are only the ones ICE knows about. The USA is on pace to have 3.142 million migrant encounters at the USA southern border in FY 2024. Southwest Land Border @ CBC. Add the >1 million visa over-stays per year and we are at 4+ million in fiscal year 2024 (Oct. 23 — Sept 24).
The fastest growing route is from Ecuador (no Visa required to enter) through Columbia and traversing the Panamanian Darién Gap in the Pan-American Highway.
The perilous journey through the Darién Gap, undertaken by over half a million souls in 2023, symbolizes the arduous paths many migrants navigate in pursuit of safety and opportunity. This dense jungle, bridging Colombia and Panama, is more than a geographical barrier; it symbolizes the arduous paths many migrants navigate. The stories of those who brave this treacherous passage illuminate the profound human spirit and the desperate lengths to which individuals will go in pursuit of a better life.
Venezuelans made up 10 percent of illegal aliens encountered in FY 2023, at 335,000. Of that number 201,000 were encountered at the southwest border. A total of 97,000 Indian and 52,000 Chinese nationals were caught by CBP in FY 2023. Nearly half of those, 24,000, were encountered by the Border Patrol at the southern border. U.S. Border Patrol and Office of Field Operations Encounters
ICE ACTIONS STOPPING IMMIGRANTS
Given a systems analysis, it is necessary to estimate the number of illegal migrants departing the US annually to determine the net increase in illegal migration. This is a system, therefore, we need to estimate how many illegal migrants left the USA in a given year to estimate the net increase in illegal migration. Based on the above, we are on pace to have < 4 million (3M via border and 1M via overstay Visa) while only >100,000 voluntarily leave. ICE only holds > 40,000 (25,422 out of 37,782 — or 67.3% — held in ICE detention have no criminal record, according to data current as of January 13, 2024). ICE Alternatives to Detention (ATD) programs are currently monitoring 192,490 families and single individuals, according to data currently as of January 13, 2024. Average time of ATD 552 days. Further, ICE has stopped 900,000 at border crossings and declared them ‘inadmissibles’ https://trac.syr.edu/whatsnew/email.240119.html).
The evidence suggests that most asylum seekers were fleeing poverty, lack of economic mobility, crime, and political disorder — all good reasons for leaving but these do not meet the standard for being granted asylum. Nevertheless, the law requires that asylum claims be assessed on a case-by-case basis, and as the number of cases rose sharply, the institutions responsible for adjudicating them were overwhelmed. During the past decade, the share of immigration cases resolved each year has fallen by half, and the backlog of pending cases rose from about 400,000 in 2013 to more than 3.1 million by the end of 2023. Few were held in detention for long periods; most were released into the U.S. with court dates far in the future, a policy that critics denounced as “catch and release.” The collapse of bipartisan immigration reform: A guide for the perplexed by Brookings
IMMIGRATION POLICY PARALYSIS AND THE PATH FORWARD
As we navigate the complexities of the 2024 immigration odyssey with its confluence of a historic migration surge, a beleaguered legal system, and a patchwork of policies has culminated in a state of policy paralysis, necessitating a bold reimagining of the path forward. A more collaborative, bipartisan effort, rooted in the nation’s foundational values, is imperative to forge a path forward made all the more clearer by Texas busing more than 100,000 of the undocumented to sanctuary cities.
The inability of the United States Congress to pass comprehensive immigration legislation has led to significant new legislation by States/cities. They have enacted hundreds of laws regulating immigration at the state level, creating tension between states with conflicting laws (sanctuary cities versus assisting in immigration regulation and enforcement) and between states and the federal government.
States are closely divided between protective laws (12 states with a combined population of 112 million people) and harmful laws (18 states with a combined population of 127 million people), with 24 states that have not yet passed sanctuary or anti-sanctuary policies (with a combined population of 93 million people). More foreign born residents are impacted by states with protective laws (23 million people) vs states with harmful laws (14 million people), with 8 million people residing in states that have passed no laws on immigration. State Map on Immigration Enforcement @Immigrant Legal Resourses Center
BREAKING THE STALEMATE
The current impasse is characterized by a polarized political landscape where discourse often devolves into vilification rather than constructive debate. This deadlock not only hampers the development of effective immigration policies but also deepens societal divisions. To transcend this stalemate, a shift towards a more collaborative, bipartisan approach is essential. Solutions must be grounded in a shared commitment to the nation’s core values of justice, compassion, and opportunity.
None of this is possible until the battling political ideologies update their mental maps on what is happening at the Border.
Reforming the asylum process is paramount to ensuring that it serves its intended purpose as a sanctuary for those fleeing persecution and not economic opportunism. This reform entails increasing the efficiency of the adjudication process, reducing bureaucratic delays, and ensuring equitable access to legal representation. By fortifying the asylum system, the United States can better uphold its international obligations and the principles of human rights without taking all the economic migrants seeking a better life.
Practical solutions could include the expansion of legal pathways for temporary foreign worker migration, including work visas and family reunification programs, which would address labor market needs while reducing irregular migration.
A comprehensive approach to the immigration crisis must also involve international collaboration to tackle the root causes of economic and forced migration. By addressing the underlying factors that compel individuals to leave their homes, the United States can contribute to a more stable and equitable global landscape.
By first identifying the undocumented residing in the U.S., we can then chart a rational, informed, and compassionate approach to immigration policy. The U.S. must navigate the complexities of this issue and honor its legacy as a nation built by immigrants.
POST RATIONAL THINKING
Unfortunately, few can say our media or politicians are acting rationally. Media shout from the two extremes of “job Threat” to “humanitarian suffering.” The point of courts and laws is to distance the individual from the act — to tame our passions — both for revenge and mercy. It is the best way for the United States to make hard choices. I fear that the U.S. no longer trusts its institutions. There is nothing left to keep emotional empathy in check (either expressed as fear or sympathy).
We must struggle to keep our passions in check. The psychological term for our reaction to any suffering is the “identifiable victim” effect. Whether we identify with the smiling face of Kate Steinle (murdered by an undocumented immigrant) or a family separated at the border. We have all shared the emotional impact of these electronic-enhanced images. This sharing of social consciousness, now possible on a media-enhanced global scale, is the cause of guilt feelings and compels society to act — often in unpredictable ways.
Nevertheless, America has to make a decision. This is why we use institutions to make and enforce our laws. Much of what I have heard on immigration debate is an attempt to circumvent any dis-passionate critical thinking on the issue by appeals to emotion “You’re a racist/they are all criminals.” This is not how to govern a country or develop a comprehensive immigration policy.
Our perception of reality is now predominantly shaped by electronic and digital media. Just as with myths originating from an oral culture, all meanings in our electronic/digital age are SIMULTANEOUS.
This new power has defeated reason itself. We seem to be facing many paradoxes in our post-rational era. At the core is our empirical science-based reason’s inability to convey valence required by our humanist worldview that creates these paradoxes. We have supplanted objective truth with Humanist Truth. Actually, a fact is merely dead and has no life (i.e., valence) of its own. Only when incorporated into a value system/narrative, do facts take on a valence. The hidden charging of facts by valence inhibits rational discourse and decision-making.
The greatest danger is believing only your opponents are infected with Humanistic Truth. While I hate to admit it, I am basically intuitive, not rational. Just like all people, practically all the time, I make hasty judgments. These are not based on reason. My false reason comes from the hidden operations of cognitive predispositions and a two-track brain. Instead of my mind acting as a judge weighing the facts, it acts as a press secretary seeking to justify my beliefs.
This is a systemic problem. Just consider the battle between wokeness/MAGA in our post-rational era (see example below): Brad & Chad Best Friends Forever video. No real spoilers are given and only 1:44 long. THE BEST TWO MINUTES YOU’LL SPEND ON YOUTUBE GUARANTEED!
That’s right, “Humans are not designed to practice reason. We are designed to make arguments that aim to support our preconceived conclusions, not yours,” The Righteous Mind: Why Good People are Divided by Politics and Religion.
As we ponder the future of immigration policy, we must strive for a balance between cognitive empathy and reason, ensuring that our decisions honor the founding principles of these United States.
FINAL THOUGHTS: Embracing Complexity in a Digital Age
The compressional nature of all electronic media (radio, TV, Telephone, digital media) has eliminated TIME & SPACE engendering a sense of wholeness, emotional empathy, and depth (at the cost of the print technology which previously enabled humanity to have an individual POINT OF VIEW). It is as if Plato saw our age when he had Phaedrus say of the dangers of a new technology. That over-reliance on [digital media] “By telling them of many things without teaching them, you will make them seem to know much, while for the most part, they know NOTHING and as men filled, not with wisdom, but with the conceit of wisdom, they will be a burden to their fellows.” Plato’s Phaedrus
Kissinger in World Order notes that information has overwhelmed knowledge and echoes Plato below on how this makes wisdom impossible because every question must have a researchable answer. Society’s failure to find ‘the answer’ results in many groups relying upon emotional empathy to make a decision. “The pursuit of transparency and connectivity in all aspects of existence, by destroying privacy, inhibits the development of personalities with the strength to make lonely decisions….only very strong personalities are able to resist the digitally aggregated and magnified unfavorable judgments of their peers.”
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