What if… an Asteroid Was Headed For Earth?
The Movie That’s Based on a Truly Possible Event
Don’t Look Up is a satirical Netflix drama about what would hypothetically happen if an asteroid were headed for Earth. Watching the movie made me wonder… what if an asteroid really was heading our way? Would we really only know 6 months before the event?
While the film pokes fun at US politics and the influence of donations to political parties on policy, what it does not poke fun at is the science. In fact, the machinery they use, the discovery of the asteroid, and the preceding events are somewhat realistic. That’s fitting given that Amy Mainzer, Principal Investigator of NASA’s NEOWISE asteroid tracking program, served as the film’s scientific advisor.
After the movie, I fell deep into a hole researching this topic all night and thought I'd share some insights with my readers.
Should You Be Worried About an Asteroid-Earth Impact?
Nah, at least not for yourself.
Dr. Kelly Fast, a planetary defense expert and a manager at NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office, explains that asteroids are always heading for Earth, but they are not of a catastrophic size and are usually smaller meteorites, which we see as shooting stars that disintegrate in our atmosphere before ever hitting the earth.
In fact, every day, the earth is bombarded with small rocks that burn up in the atmosphere before ever striking the ground.
“About once a year, an automobile-sized asteroid hits Earth’s atmosphere, creates an impressive fireball, and burns up before reaching the surface.” While “every 2,000 years or so, a meteoroid the size of a football field hits Earth and causes significant damage to the area.” — NASA
But what about asteroids that impact the surface? These usually happen on time scales of hundreds to thousands to millions of years.
Is a 6-month Warning of a Comet Realistic?
In the movie, the asteroid is estimated to hit the Earth in 6 months. Dr. Becky, a working astrophysicist at the University of Oxford and one of the most famous science YouTubers claims this is pretty realistic.
In fact, one of the brightest comets that passed Earth recently was only discovered about 4 months before its close passing our planet.
If you don’t recall Comet NEOWISE, it made headlines for being the brightest comet in the northern hemisphere since Comet Hale–Bopp in 1997. Comet NEOWISE was discovered in March 2020 and closely passed Earth in July 2020. That’s just a span of 4 months from discovery to seeing it shine brightly (and much closer) in the sky.
How Large Does An Asteroid Have To Be To Destroy Our Planet?
In the movie, the comet is estimated to be between 5 and 10 km wide. If this were real life, that is definitely a great enough size to worry about, says Dr. Becky. 10km is a Global Mass Extinction Level Event. For some context, the asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs was roughly 10km across.
But according to Dr Becky, even from about 140m across, you should be worried, it’s enough for localised destruction.
Is it really possible to redirect asteroids headed for the Earth?
In the unlikely event that an asteroid is hurling straight for the Earth, there’s a backup plan, much like in the movie. The Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) is part of a planetary defense strategy designed to defend Earth from a potentially catastrophic disaster. DART aims to nudge the asteroid from colliding with Earth by purposely crashing a spacecraft into it.
They are currently testing the technology on Dimorphos, a 525-foot-wide asteroid. Although this space rock doesn’t threaten our planet, it’s a “perfect testing ground” for whether crashing a spacecraft into an asteroid can effectively change its motion in space.
A 1000-foot-wide asteroid will closely pass Earth in 2029
Asteroid 99942 Apophis, identified as one of the most hazardous asteroids that could impact Earth, was discovered in 2004 and has been closely monitored since then.
But do not fear! NASA claims we have been safe from it for over a hundred years. But you will see it up close on April 13th, 2029, coincidentally also Friday the 13th. I'm not so sure how to feel about that one.
Schedule a DDIChat Session in Science and Technology:
Apply to be a DDIChat Expert here.
Ways to work with DDI: https://datadriveninvestor.com/collaborate
Visit us at https://www.datadriveninvestor.com/
Gain Access to Expert View — Subscribe to DDI Intel: https://ddintel.datadriveninvestor.com/
